The economist Tyler Cowen puts it this way: “Thirty years from now you’ll look back and marvel — I had the privilege of living in two completely different worlds: the pre-AI world and the post-AI world.” The surprise is how little the intelligence has shown up in the data. His explanation is uncomfortable and, I think, correct.
Cowen’s own move is the whole lesson: at 64, seeing that the models could out-write him, he reallocated two-thirds of his effort away from writing and toward the things a model can’t do — talks, mentoring, being in the room. He chose his work to stay ahead of the machines, and he did it in a ten-minute window the day he first saw GPT-4.
I made a smaller version of that call. I’m an MD who stopped writing about healthcare and started shipping it — software, companies, an accountable layer that puts a named human on the work. That reallocation is my adaptation. If the result above stung a little, good — that’s the signal to move. See what I’m building →
Framework and quotations from Tyler Cowen, in conversation on the pre-AI / post-AI transition (source interview). This is a reflective self-assessment, not a validated instrument — the point is the honest look, not the number.
Blaine Warkentine, MD · blainomd.com